Check out the ACE-HF propagation software - the latest is version 2.05. ACE-HF is propagation forecasting and modeling for Amateur Radio as well as for Shortwave radio Listening and general HF operation. This software is even used by the military and other clients around the world. This software is developed and maintained by the same engineers that keep VOACAP up-to-date. As a result, this software is the most accurate user interface integrated with VOACAP. CHECK IT OUT, TODAY. This software is the most accurate modeling software available, and is endorsed by NW7US. Read the details to find out why.
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Map, Above: Conditions in the D region of the ionosphere have a dramatic effect on high frequency (HF) communications and low frequency (LF) navigation systems. The global D Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) depicts the D region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes.
Note: At times, images may appear broken or missing, when SDO is working on the AIA/HMI instruments.
Planetary A-index (Ap): 24
| Planetary K-index (Kp): 1
Solar Wind: 552 km/s at 11.0 protons/cm3, Bz is -1.0 nT
(Oct 04, 2022 at 1719 UT)
X-ray Solar Flares:
6h hi [M4.2][0938Z 10/03] 24h hi [M4.2][0938Z 10/03]
What is the difference between the CB and Amateur Radio Services, in the USA? Here are some thoughts on the portrayal of the Amateur Radio Service by the Hit TV Series, NCIS, and a clarification of the difference between CB radio and ham radio.
(Skip to timecode 1:33 to bypass the introductory chat and talk about the headset microphone.)
Here is a video introduction to shortwave / HF amateur radio -- what is it that we amateur radio oprators listen to? If you have not yet been introduced to this world, this is a very basic introduction.
If you are using software utilities such as Ace-HF, that require a "smoothed" sunspot number
(Referred to as the SSN), or, the smoothed 10.7-cm Radio Flux Index,
use the following predicted values in this following table:
Predicted SMOOTHED Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values
With Expected Ranges
At 0805 UTC, on 9 August 2011, a strong magnitude X6.9 X-ray flare -- the strongest yet in this current solar cycle (Cycle 24) -- erupted on the northwestern solar limb. Here is a HD Movie of the event:
Videos of Interest - Space Weather, Solar Dynamics Observatory, STEREO, and more... from the NW7US YouTube Channel. (Click on the small image to launch the video...)
Video: Voyager Finds Magnetic Foam at Solar Systems Edge
Video: Zoom View of Prominence Eruption and X-Ray Flare - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011
Video: X-Ray Flare, Coronal Mass Ejection, Proton Storm - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011 (Close-up of the video, above)
Video: Stunning Close-up View of M3 X-Ray Flare 24 February 2011
Video: On How NCIS TV Show Maligned Amateur Radio Service (Full UHD Version)
What's the difference between CB and amateur (ham) radio?
Video: June 2011 20-meter (14-Mhz) JT65A Coverage Map of NW7US Radio Signal
The NW7US Current Sunspot and Geophysical Activity Report
The observations, prognastications, and comments by NW7US
NW7US is Tomas David Hood, Propagation and Space Weather Columnist
for CQ Communications
More about Background X-rays
The hard X-ray energy present from the wavelengths of 1 to 8 Angstroms provide the most effective ionizing energy throughout all of the ionospheric layers in our atmosphere. The GEOS satellites measure these wavelengths and the resulting measurements are reported as the "background X-ray level" throughout the day. A daily average is reported, as well.
Just like X-ray flares, the background hard X-ray level is measured in watts per square meter (W/m2), reported using the categories, A, B, C, M, and X. These letters are multipliers; each class has a peak flux ten times greater than the preceding one. Within a class there is a linear scale from 1 to 9.
If one records the daily background X-ray levels for the course of a sunspot cycle, one would discover that the background X-ray levels remained at the A class level during the sunspot cycle minumum. During the rise and fall of a solar cycle, the background X-ray energy levels remained mostly in the B range. During peak solar cycle periods, the background energy reached the C and sometimes even M levels.
Armed with this information, can we discover any clues as to the current status of Sunspot Cycle 24? Below is a graph plotting the background hard X-ray energy reported by the GEOS satellites since the end of Sunspot Cycle 22. Clearly, we see a noticeable rise in Cycle 24 activity. We're seeing the energy mostly in the B level more often, supporting the view that Cycle 24 is alive and moving along toward an eventual sunspot cycle peak in several years.
Overall, the monthly average background 'hard' X-ray level is rising (as seen by the following plot), showing a change from deep solar cycle minimum. We are certainly in the rising phase of Sunspot Cycle 24. While it has been a slow up-tick over the last eighteen months, I expect to see a more rapid rise during mid to late 2011.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Covering the period: 26 September - 02 October 2022
Solar activity ranged from low to high levels during the period. Low levels occured from 26-29 Sep with numerous C-class flares observed from Regions 3105 (S17, L=210, class/area Dki/490 on 22 Sep), 3107 (S25, L=113, class/area Fai/240 on 24 Sep) and 3112 (N23, L=052, class/area Fki/750 on 02 Oct), the largest region on the disk. The largest of these flares was a long duration C5.5 from Region 3112.
Activity increased to moderate levels with three M-class flares from Region 3112 including an M2.9 at 30/1622 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected with these flares. Activity levels further increased to high with an M5.8/1b flare observed at 01/2010 UTC from Region 3110 (N16, L=158, class/area Dhi/320 on 25 Sep). Analysis and modelling of the subsequent CME indicated a possible Earth-directed component. In addition, a slow rise and fall C3.5 x-ray event, with an associated filament eruption, was detected from Region 3113 (N16, L=154, class/area Dao/100 on 01 Oct). Analysis and modelling of the subsequent CME indicated a possible Earth-directed component.
High levels continued with M-class activity from Regions 3110 and 3112, the largest of these was an M8.7/1n from Region 3110. Associated with this event was a Type IV, a Tenflare (190 sfu) and a possible Earth-directed CME. Late on 02 Oct, the largest event of the highlight period was observed from Region 3110, an X1.0 with an associated Type II (1157 km/s) and 420 sfu Tenflare. Also associated with this event was a CME that had not been analyzed as of this writing.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 26 Sep with a peak flux of 2,640 pfu observed at 26/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was slightly elevated to near 2 pfu on the 27th and near 1 pfu on 01 and 02 Oct due to major flare activity.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels. Mostly quiet levels were observed on 26 Sep. By 27 Sep, levels increased to unsettled to major storm due to negative polarity CH HSS effects coupled with CME effects from 24 Sep. Mostly quiet levels were observed on 28-29 Sep. Unsettled to active levels were observed on 30 Sep due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet levels returned on 01 Oct through midday or so on 02 Oct. Later on 02 Oct, unsettled to minor storm levels were observed due to positive polarity CH HSS effects.
Monthly and smoothed sunspot number - The monthly mean sunspot number (blue) and 13-month smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last five cycles. You can see that this current cycle, Cycle 24, is a weak cycle, compared to the last few.
(Click to see actual size)
Daily and monthly sunspot number (last 13 years)
Daily sunspot number (yellow), monthly mean sunspot number (blue), smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last 13 years and 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed sunspot number:
SC (red dots) : prediction method based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; It is only based on the sunspot number series.
CM (red dashes) : method (from K. Denkmayr and P. Cugnon) combining a regression technique applied to the sunspot number series with the aa geomagnetic index used as a precursor (improved predictions during the minimum phase between solar cycles).
(Click to see actual size)
What is 'Space Weather'? Click on these two information slides to view them in full size:
Active sunspot regions, and plages, identified by SIDC
What is coming
Real Time Solor Wind and Aurora:
On 2022 Oct 04 1726Z: Bz: 4.0 nT
Bx: -2.7 nT | By: 2.1 nT | Total: 5.3 nT
Most recent satellite polar pass:
Centered on // : UTC Aurora Activity Level was at UTC
visit noaa for latest.
This is a video of the simulation from May 27-28, 2011, showing
the Geomagnetic disturbance caused by the solar wind
Outlook: (valid from 1230UT, 04 Oct 2022 until 06 Oct 2022)
04 Oct 2022 10.7-cm Flux: 156 / Ap: 011
05 Oct 2022 10.7-cm Flux: 157 / Ap: 011
06 Oct 2022 10.7-cm Flux: 158 / Ap: 007
Solar Flares: M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) Geo-Disturbance: Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) Solar Proton Event: Quiet
Comment from the SIDC (RWC Belgium): Solar flaring activity was at high levels. Catania sunspot group 48 (NOAA AR 3110, beta) and very magnetically complex sunspot NOAA AR 3112 (beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity) remained active and produced several M-class flares. The largest and latest one was a M1.7-class flare produced by NOAA AR 3110 at 21:22 UTC peak time on October 02. The other sunspots group on the disc facing Earth were not showing any flaring activity. Since the latest M1.7-class flare, the full disc flaring activity seems to have slightly decreased to C-class flaring levels of activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain high with possible M-class flares and also slight chance for an X-class flare.
Three Day Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
(as of 2200Z on 07 Dec 2014)
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (10 Dec).
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
03 October - 29 October 2022
Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class from 03-14 Oct and again from 18-29 Oct due to current active regions on the visible disk and returning active regions. Low levels are expected during the interim dates from 15-17 Oct.
A chance for proton events at geosynchronous orbit are possible from 03-14 Oct and again from 18-29 Oct due to current active regions on the visible disk and returning active regions. No proton events are expected during the interim dates from 15-17 Oct.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at mostly normal to moderate levels during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at minor to major storm levels on 03-05 Oct due to combined positive polarity CH HSS and CME effects. Unsettled levels are possible on 10 Oct, 15-16 Oct and 20-21 Oct with active levels possible on 15-16 Oct, all due to recurrent CH HSS effects.
Data and images courtesy of IPS Australia, NOAA, NASA, SWPC, SIDC
Layout, analysis, commentary, and certain forecasts and content is Copyright, 2021, Tomas David Hood (NW7US), all rights reserved.
No part, except for the space weather 'banners', may be copied without express permission.